Large agricultural investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki Area: Inventory and analysis of business models

Many experts agree that more agricultural investment is needed in the global South to improve local food security and reduce poverty. However, there is a lack of consensus about the types of investment needed to achieve these goals. This paper contributes to the literature on large agricultural investments and corresponding business models by inventorying and analysing such investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki area. We identify four clusters of business models that differ primarily by type of production and other distinct determinants, namely: demand from markets; access to land; land tenure regime and colonial history; actors involved; biophysical context; labour availability; and governance of the value chain via private standards. The study results shed light on the factors that help or hinder implementation of large agricultural investments and shape their impacts in the context of African land use systems. The way land is accessed represents one of the most-decisive factors determining the risks and opportunities associated with such projects. We find that most investments in the Nanyuki area occur on land bought or leased from private owners.     

土地复垦监管行为规范的主体性合作治理形式选择

研究目的:根据相关主体性意愿的指引,阐明合作治理范式在土地复垦监管行为领域展开具体运用的现实性,及其可能的规范设定方向,进而尝试在相应行为规范维度来检视行政行为法理论的发展任务命题。研究方法:文献分析法。研究结果:土地复垦监管行为的形式选择往往与相应的合作治理主体性意愿有关,该意愿主要表征为利益导向、工具载体以及协同组织选择意愿。应厘清该类选择意愿指引于土地复垦监管行为规范所分别呈现的形式选择:逐利心态与信任习惯选择、科学事实工具与行政规制工具选择、内部协同组织与外部协同组织选择。研究结论:土地复垦监管行为在行为观念和当事人方面与合作治理的主体性意愿在一定程度上是相互耦合的,有必要构建一种合作行政模式下的治理型土地复垦监管行为规范。     

山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素，评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度，为科学编制区域空间规划，保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵，归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素，提出了驱动力指数计算方法，定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2，占生态用地总面积的472%； 转入316万hm2，占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2，占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多，向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之，向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中，耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高，非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

Do foreign exchange forecasters apply asymmetric loss functions? Evidence from three major exchange rates

This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data set, which also allows us to examine different forecast horizons and heterogeneity of forecasters.     

Changing patterns of transfers in Slovenia in the last three decades: transition from a socialist economy to a market economy

Rapid population ageing increases interest in economic flows across ages and intergenerational transfers in general. This article uses the National Transfer Accounts methodology to measure consumption and production at each age, and how the difference between consumption and production is financed through (private and public) transfers and the interaction with assets, i.e. ‘asset-based reallocations’. During working ages, people earn more than they consume and with the surplus they finance the deficit of the young and old generations who consume more than they produce. Such a pattern of economic dependency is universal across countries and across time, but huge differences exist in the ages at which individuals produce more than they consume and vice versa. Moreover, the importance of private and public transfers and asset-based reallocations varies across countries and times. In the last three decades, life expectancy at birth in Slovenia increased by 9.3 years, while the age span in which production exceeds consumption narrowed rather than increased. Child dependents are predominantly financed by private transfers, whereas the elderly mainly rely on public transfers. Young and old individuals increasingly rely on public transfers. Together with rapid population ageing, this is likely to jeopardise the public finance system in the future.     

Market impact: a systematic study of the high frequency options market

This paper deals with a fundamental subject that has seldom been addressed in recent years, that of market impact in the options market. Our analysis is based on a proprietary database of metaorders—large orders that are split into smaller pieces before being sent to the market—on one of the main Asian markets. In line with our previous work on the equity market [Said, E., Bel Hadj Ayed, A., Husson, A. and Abergel, F., Market impact: A systematic study of limit orders. Mark. Microstruct. Liq., 2018, 3(3&4), 1850008.], we propose an algorithmic approach to identify metaorders, based on some implied volatility parameters, the at the money forward volatility and at the money forward skew. In both cases, we obtain results similar to the now well-understood equity market: Square-Root Law, Fair Pricing Condition and Market Impact Dynamics.     

土地经营权债权属性之再证成

研究目的:证成现行法语境下土地经营权的债权性质,为土地经营权在新《农村土地承包法》和《民法典》中的体系化阐释与衔接奠定基础。研究方法:比较分析方法、原理论证和法释义学。研究结果:"用益物权说"违背定限物权生成之法理,将造成虚化土地承包经营权之困境。"权利用益物权(次级用益物权)"进路亦存虚化客体权利之弊,德国"次级地上权"经验无法证明其可行性。参酌德国民法中用益物权之行使移交制度,土地经营权之债权定性既与现行规范解释相契合,在学理推导和制度承接方面亦具正当性。研究结论:现行法中的土地经营权统一为债权属性,"用益物权说"和"债权物权二元说"无法成立。     

农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模与仿真研究

[目的]利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程,以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络,以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象,建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式,利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。[结果]在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%,决定了其净风险阈α0(i)、β0(i),相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标,对进程风险传导感染率x1(i)和恢复率x2(i)起主导作用。[结论]近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性,在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态(S)、感染传播状态(I)管控能力,能有效降低波动幅度。     

“倒挂型”土地利用总体规划的耕地保护效果评价

研究目的:揭示"倒挂型"土地利用总体规划与耕地保护效果之间的关系,以期为国土空间规划的编制提供参考。研究方法:倾向值匹配法。研究结果:(1)耕地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化的影响具有统计显著性,2006—2008年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少2.270万hm2;(2)2010—2016年,耕保指标"倒挂型"规划使耕地面积净变化量平均减少0.496万hm2;(3)建设用地"倒挂型"规划对耕地面积净变化量并无显著影响。研究结论:在省级政府耕地保护责任目标考核的制度环境下,耕地"倒挂型"规划对地方政府形成一定压力,促使各级政府采取措施加以应对,从而使得"倒挂型"规划在一定程度上降低了耕地净减少量。     

领导干部自然资源资产离任审计与企业绿色并购——来自中国重污染型上市公司的经验证据

基于2011~2017年我国A股重污染型上市公司经验数据，实证检验了领导干部自然资源资产离任审计对企业绿色并购行为的影响，研究发现：领导干部自然资源资产离任审计可显著促进辖区内企业实施绿色并购；而当地区市场竞争程度越高时，越会抑制企业在领导干部自然资源资产离任审计试点实施背景下的绿色并购扩张行为；进一步地，企业绿色并购会显著提高企业价值，且这一影响对并购后当年的企业价值影响最为显著；基于异质性分析方面，领导干部自然资源资产离任审计会约束不同产权性质企业的环境治理行为，促进其采取绿色并购，实施绿色发展；同时领导干部自然资源资产离任审计会更有利于东部地区企业实施绿色并购，而对中西部地区的企业影响不明显。